July 5th is the date of a massive mega earthquake that is predicted to hit Japan.
The massive earthquake could cause trillions of dollars of property damage and lead to many deaths and a resultant tsunami that would be unprecedented in contemporary times. The prediction has been shared globally, impacting inbound tourism into Japan.
The predictions are based on the dreams of a famous Japanese manga artist Ryo Tatsuki who first published The Future I Saw in July 1999 with a later reprint in 2021 where she wrote, “The real disaster will strike in July 2025” based on an earthquake in the Philippine Sea that would lead to a tsunami “three times as tall as those from the Tohoku earthquake” that would destroy Japan.
But those predictions and impending doom that has struck fear in both the domestic population and foreign visitors has not stopped Dr. Steve Minaglia (52, USA, MSF bio here), Robert Woodhouse (Australia, 59, MSF bio here), Gráinne Moss (55, Ireland, MSF bio here), Andreas Waschburger (38, Germany, MSF bio here, IISA bio here, @andreaswaschburger) – among others – from gathering on the northern shores of Japan.
This coming week, they all will attempt crossings of the 19.5 km Tsugaru Channel between Honshu and Hokkaido in northern Japan – hopefully without being interrupted by the most massively damaging earthquake and tsunami in contemporary times.
Record Possibilities
Woodhouse will attempt his final Oceans Seven channel and break the Fastest Cumulative Time for the Oceans Seven, currently held by Andy Donaldson (Scotland, 34, MSF bio here, @andy.swimming) in 63 hours 21 minutes 20 seconds. Woodhouse must cross Tsugaru faster than 9 hours 40 minutes 49 seconds to set a new record – with Captain Kawayama at the helm.
Moss will attempt to set the Longest Duration to Achieve the Oceans Seven at 37 years and 11 months (approximately 13,850 days) that is currently held by Marcia Cleveland (61, USA, MSF bio here, IISA bio here, @marciac944) of 11,253 days between the date of her first and seventh channel crossing.
Waschburger is on track to set or reset the Fastest Cumulative Time for the Oceans Seven based on his 2 hour 51 minute Strait of Gibraltar crossing, 5 hour 13 minute crossing of the Cook Strait, 9 hour 55 minute crossing of the Molokai Channel, and 6 hour 45 minute crossing of the English Channel to date. He has the Catalina Channel and North Channel crossings scheduled for the remainder of his summer.
Earthquakes in the Tsugaru Channel
On Saturday, June 29th 2024, Australian Mark Sowerby achieved the Oceans Seven with a crossing of the Tsugaru Channel.
In particular, there were two happenings during his 10 hour 6 minute crossing that Captain Kawayama, coach Tim Denyer, and his support crew including cameraman Jeff Tseng could not quite explain. They simply chalked it up to the unique topography, general geomorphology of the area, and the natural phenomenon of the Tsugaru Current.
Phenomenon 1: A Massive Course Shift
Mid-channel at a depth of 200 meters around 4 hours after his start in Aomori Prefecture on Honshu, Sowerby suddenly took an inexplicable sharp turn towards the east (see above). There was no conscious effort to make a dramatic – or even modest – change in his swimming orientation or direction. No one on his escort boat remembers specifically making a sudden shift that was identified by his GPS coordinates. And then without another conscious effort, he returned to his intended course and carried on to Hokkaido, his ultimate goal.
Phenomenon 2: A Massive Water Temperature Shift
Approximately two hours from his finish, about 8 hours into his swim, Sowerby suddenly stopped because he felt a dramatic drop in the water temperature. The water temperature within a 100-meter area at a depth of between 50-70 meters decreased from 20°C to 14.5°C. The tough Aussie was hardened, but the water temperature shift was a kick to the gut and made him focus.
Sowerby did not specifically see anything particular during either the course shift or the temperature shift. “As far as the sunlight reached the depths, I could see deep below in the clear waters of Tsugaru,” he recalls.
What occurred?
A magnitude 2.5 earthquake hit the Sea of Japan at 8:14 am – which was 4 hours 8 minutes after Sowerby started on the Kodomari Cape. The earthquake had a very shallow depth of 7.2 km and was not felt on dryland in the area, but the earthquake epicenter was 40.633°N / 139.12°E while Sowerby was approximately at 41.1243°N / 140.2479°E or about 513 km to the east – that led to his 90° turn and a sudden 6.5°C temperature drop.
Oceans Seven Swimmers in History
If Woodhouse and Moss are successful next week, they will join the pantheon of Oceans Seven swimmers. Later this month, Alexandra Rossi Cima (50, Brazil, MSF bio here) will also attempt the Tsugaru Channel to join the Oceans Seven Club.
- Stephen Redmond (Ireland)
- Anna Carin Nordin (Sweden)
- Michelle Macy (USA)
- Darren Miller (USA)
- Adam Walker (UK)
- Kimberley Chambers (New Zealand)
- Antonio Argüelles (Mexico)
- Ion Lazarenco Tiron (Moldavia and Ireland)
- Rohan Dattatrey More (India)
- Abhejali Bernardová (Czech Republic)
- Cameron Bellamy (South Africa)
- Lynton Mortensen (Australia)
- Thomas Pembroke (Australia)
- Nora Toledano Cadena (Mexico)
- Mariel Hawley Dávila (Mexico)
- André Wiersig (Germany)
- Elizabeth Fry (USA)
- Attila Mányoki (Hungary)
- Jonathan Ratcliffe (UK)
- Jorge Crivilles Villanueva (Spain)
- Adrian Sarchet (Guernsey)
- Prabhat Koli (India)
- Dina Levačić (Croatia)
- Herman van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
- Andy Donaldson (Scotland)
- Stephen Junk (Australia)
- Kieron Palframan (South Africa)
- Bárbara Hernández Huerta (Chile)
- Mark Sowerby (Australia)
- Paul Georgescu (Romania)
- Zach Margolis (USA)
- Petar Stoychev (Bulgaria)
- Nathalia Pohl (Germany)
- Caitlin O’Reilly (New Zealand at the age of 20 years 7 months 15 days)
- Ryan Utsumi (USA)
- Marcia Cleveland (USA)
- Eduardo Collazos Valle-Guayo (Peru)
And…who knows what will hit Tokyo next?
© 2025 Daily News of Open Water Swimming
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