What is the probability of a German sweep of both the men’s and women’s 10 km marathon swim at the Paris Olympic Games?
Pretty high.
The country bar was set by the Dutch at the 2016 Rio Olympics when Ferry Weertman just barely touched out Greece’s Spyridon Gianniotis when they both touched in 1:52:59.8 and Sharon van Rouwendaal absolutely dominated the field, winning in 1:56:32.1, 17 seconds ahead of Rachele Bruni of Italy and 19 seconds ahead of Poliana Okimoto of Brazil.
Swimming World Magazine named German teammates Florian Wellbrock and Leonie Beck as their 2023 Open Water Swimmers of the Year based on an outstanding year of accomplishments.
At the 2023 World Aquatics Championships in Japan, the 25-year-old Wellbrock kicked off with a gold medal performance in the 10 km race and then won the 5 km race two days later. In Paris, he has the definite potential to pull off a Mellouli Double, winning medals in both the pool (800m or 1500m freestyle) and in the Seine River.
At the 2023 World Aquatics Championships, the 26-year-old Beck sweep gold with winning performances in the 10 km race (2:02:34.00) and the 5 km race (59:31.70).
Wellbrock has plenty of top competition including Kristóf Rasovszky of Hungary, a pair of Italians Gregorio Paltrinieri and Domenico Acerenza, and another pair of highly motivated Frenchmen Marc-Antoine Olivier and Logan Fontaine who could topple the gold medal favorite. Based on his perforrmances since Tokyo, it makes sense that Wellbrock will push the pace from the very beginning on the 10 km river course because there are few swimmers in the world who can keep that same pace for an entire 10 kilometers. It would seem a reasonable strategy for Wellbrock to start off very face in an early attempt to thin the field to only the strongest and dare the others to keep pace. But the savvy tactical minds of the French and Italians could have the advantage if Paltrinieri and Acerenza worked together and Olivier and Fontaine tag-teamed with each other so the two duos could collectively keep pace with a fast-moving Wellbrock.
Of course, on the final lap, it will be anyone’s game and a sprint to the finish.
On the women’s side, Beck faces a similar onslaught of savvy, hungry competitors including defending Olympic champion Ana Marcela Cunha of Brazil, Sharon van Rouwendaal, Kareena Lee of Australia, and a whole host of others including a young American Katie Grimes and a veteran Frenchwoman Caroline Jouisse. While the men’s race may be more of a feat on high-pace endurance race that ends in a sustained sprint, the women’s race is much more likely to be tactical throughout with a larger lead pack. It is much more likely that there will be much more physicality and yellow cards issues as well as lead changes throughout the race including (and especially) on the last lap.
But Florian and Beck enter in final 50 days leading up to the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympic Games as the 2024 Olympic 10K Marathon Swim gold medal favorite. Both will swim with high expectations and significant pressure on their shoulders – it remains to be seen who will she stand on top of the medal podium and listen to their national anthem.
© 2024 Daily News of Open Water Swimming
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