Katie Ledecky is the greatest female competitive swimmer of all time. Not only has she won 9 Olympic gold medals and 21 world championship gold medals, the most for a female swimmer in history, but she also has swam the fastest twenty 1500m freestyle races of all time.
She has swam under 15:38.88 20 times during her career with her fastest time of 15:20.48. Anastasiia Kirpichnikova, a 24-year-old pool and open water swimmer from Russia who now represents France, won a silver medal in the 1500m freestyle in 15:40.35 at the 2024 Paris Olympics – to give an idea how far out in front of the field Ledecky has been over the course of her career in the pool.
2024 Paris Olympics 1500m Freestyle Finals
- Katie Ledecky (USA) – 15:30.02 (Olympic Record)
- Anastasiia Kirpichnikova (France) – 15:40.35
- Isabel Gose (Germany) – 15:41.16
- Simona Quadarella (Italy) – 15:44.05
- Li Bingjie (China) – 16:01.03
- Moesha Johnson (Australia) – 16:02.70
- Beatriz Dizotti (Brazil) – 16:02.86
- Leonie Martens (Germany) – 16:12.57
LA28 Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Qualifiers
At the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, any swimmer who has qualified for the 800m or 1500m freestyle can participate in the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim as long as their country has not yet qualified a maximum of two swimmers in the marathon swim final. This is the way that Olympic 800m champion Daniel Wiffen and other pool-oriented distance freestylers qualified for the marathon swim at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
So what would theoretically happen in Ledecky – the greatest female distance freestyler of all time – chose to enter the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim, approximately a week before her first pool race in LA28?
While she is not interested in open water swimming, it is an interesting thought experiment as the LA28 marathon swim course is expected to be ideal for a pool-oriented athlete. In a typical late July morning on the water in Alamitos Beach, located inside of the Long Beach Breakwater, the water will be calm, still, shallow, and warm with the sun rising brightly, but not hot yet.
A tranquil setting. An ideal race course without waves, turbulence, wind, tidal flows, or currents.
A rectangular course with four turn buoys and a floating feeding pontoon with a straightaway for a finish.
Unlike the fast-flowing Seine River course that challenged even the most experienced open water swimmers, this rectangular flat-water, warm-water layout is easy to navigate. Athletes like Ledecky and other pool-oriented swimmers will be surrounded by media boats, official’s boats, and kayakers with thousands of fans lining the shore.
Swimming Strategy
Whether it is a 200m freestyle, 400m freestyle, 800m freestyle, or 1500m freestyle over the course of her lengthy career, Ledecky quickly establishes a pace in which no one in history has the stamina or speed to maintain.
Right from the dive off the floating starting pontoon, just like she does in all her pool races, we expect Ledecky to quickly take off. In her typical 1500m races, she always separates herself from the field by the first 50 meters. She knows no other way and will do so in the open water – where she can demonstrate her extraordinary stamina, strength, and speed over 10,000 meters instead of a mere 1500 meters.
Her aggressive approach to racing will enable her to establish her dominance early. She will lead the field by at least a body length by the first turn buoy – and very likely more.
The rest of the field will have to chase her and try to maintain her pace. This will not be possible for everyone – only a handful of the best swimmers can keep up her pace. Usually, when the pace is very fast, the trailing pack stretches out and the drafting effect is lessened (compared to a larger, rounder pack with several tiers of athletes).
There is precedence for this type of ‘get-out-in-front-fast’ strategy:
- Jarrod Poort of Australia at the 2016 Rio Olympics 10K marathon swim
- Keri-Anne Payne and Cassandra Patten of Great Britain at the 2008 Beijing Olympics 10K marathon swim
Poort took off in the Copacabana Beach course and held over a 100+ meter lead over the field for over 90 minutes. Eventually, he was caught and finished 20th in the 25-man field. His disadvantage was that nearly the entire field worked together to catch him on the last loop. But even in this case, Poort finished 40 seconds behind Ferry Weertman, the Dutch gold medalist.
Payne and Patten were two swimmers who did not like the physicality of swimming in the lead pack or any trailing pack, and took off in front, always pushing the pace. They pulled off a remarkable silver-bronze finish as they swam nearly stroke-for-stroke throughout the entire 10 km rectangular course, only to be passed in the last 100 meters by Russia’s Larisa Ilchenko.
Conditions
The tranquility of the conditions, the warmth and shallowness of the water, and the opportunity to simply swim straight and fast play right into the innate and well-developed talents of Ledecky.
Physicality
Because she will so quickly establish distance between herself and the rest of the field, Ledecky will not need to worry about other athletes impeding her progress and elbowing her around turn buoys. In the clear water where she will swim, she will have the luxury of swimming around the turn buoys without any competitor to run into or over her. There will be no fear or worry about receiving yellow cards or red cards.
Feeding
Ledecky will need to learn how to feed off a feeding pontoon. However, with no competitors around her, this new skill should be easy to manage. In fact, even if she does not optimally feed and messing up a little bit, her competitors will still have to deal with crowded conditions within the lead pack and trailing packs, so her advantage remains.
Pacing
Ledecky’s well-deserved reputation for being a tremendous workout swimmer will enable her to maintain a fast pace that will challenge even the most experienced open water swimmers. When the top swimmers are trying to chase Ledecky, they are spending less time drafting one another. The trailing pack of swimmers will be strung out. It will not be the tight, cohesive trailing pack of faster swimmers that eventually caught Poort in Rio de Janeiro.
Navigation
Navigation will be one of Ledecky’s Achilles Heels. However, if there is any course that will be easy to navigate, it will be the LA28 course – where a rectangular layout with massive banana-shaped turn buoys and other colored guide buoys will make navigation easy. However, with Ledecky setting the pace, the trailing pack of at most 4-7 swimmers will most likely follow in her wake.
While a high navigational IQ is a trait seen in all podium finishers at the Olympic marathon swim, It is highly unlikely that she will go significantly – or even slightly – off course.
Finish
If for some reason another competitor catches up to Ledecky and there is a sprint on the final straightaway and down through the finish chute, we have seen enough 200m relay anchors and legs by Ledeckky throughout her career to appreciate her flat-out speed and sheer competitiveness. It would be close to implausible for another swimmer to outsprint Ledecky in the final stages of the race.
Mindset
This is where there is a weakness in Ledecky’s potential armor. Not only will she not be able to see the bottom of the ocean, but she will have to swim fast – without flip turns – for 10,000 meters. She is an aggressive swimmer of unparalleled talent, but the open water is a completely different arena.
If the sun glare gets in her eyes, if she accidentally swallows water, if she completely gets disoriented along the course, if her goggles fill up with water, if she runs into a plastic bag on the surface, if anything unexpected occurs, then her mind can start playing games on her.
All marathon swimmers have felt this – even the most experienced swimmers. It is a sense of unknowing, a sense of loss of composure, a sense of worry that can consume a swimmer. In the Olympic Games, anything can happen – and most likely will at some point – or points – in the nearly two-hour race.
Ledecky must be prepared for the unexpected to occur.
Expected Outcome: Victory
But we think Ledecky’s competitiveness, her composure under pressure, her maturity and experience as a decorated athlete, her self-confidence, and her innate talents will take her across the finish line to capture her 10th career Olympic gold medal.
She is just that good. A once-in-a-generation talent whose dedication to the sport has made her one of swimming’s greatest ambassadors and icons.
© 2025 Daily News of Open Water Swimming
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Ledecks could totally add one more gold to her trophy case. Plus diversity with events. Pretty awesome opportunity.
Question though: Would having to peak twice during a three week period allow her for enough down time and recovery? The 10k would be first, then the pool stuff. The order feels right. Go from big distance to shorter distance. But still the big effort in the 10k may play on her as she prepares to kick butt in the pool?
True Open-Water swimmers want conditions unlike those found in a pool. Moving CLEAN water, changing temperatures that are not too hot, sighting challenges, pack swimming, and drafting are all part of true open-water racing. If those conditions are not there, just hold the competition in a big pool. Just my humble opinion.
Alamitos Beach within the Long Beach Breakwater is as close as you can get to a big pool with 4 turn buoys at each corner of a rectangular course. This course is ideal for a very fast pool swimmer who has the ability to go out fast and keep up a pace that few others can hold. If you want a technically challenging course, then a course similar to the Seine at the 2024 Paris Olympics – with its fast currents – was not only great to watch, but would also be very enjoyable to experience in a racing situation. A 10 km point-to-point course that was laid out and proposed by local swimmers from Palos Verdes Peninsula to Redondo Beach is also an enjoyable challenge with oncoming ocean swells, large kelp beds to navigate through, swirling eddies, myriad marine life (from sharks and dolphins to jellyfish and salp), and surf near the end – which that kind of course is not for the Olympic marathon swimmers.
Agreed, except for the pack swimming & drafting. Swim your own race and be let to swim your own race.