How Fast Are The Olympic Marathon Swimmers? The Women in the Seine

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If the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim were held in a pool and the River Seine had lane lines, walls, and diving blocks like a competitive pool, then the wmen in the Olympic marathon swim event would be seeded like the 800 meter or 1500 meter freestyle in the pool

If this were the case, then the marathon swim seedings would look like this (based on either the 800m or 1500m best times of the athletes):

Lifetime Best 800m Time (in a 25m short-course pool)

Sharon van Rouwendaal, Netherlands 8:08.2
Katie Grimes, USA 8:12.2
Leonie Beck, Germany 8:17.5
Viviane Jungblut, Brazil 8:19.6
Moesha Johnson, Australia 8:19.8
Angela Martinez Guillen, Spain 8:21.5
Giulia Gabbrielleschi, Italy 8:23.4 (50m pool)
Leah Phoebe Crisp, Great Britain 8:24.8
Bettina Fabian, Hungary 8:25.7
Chelsea Gubecka, Australia 8:26.8
Leonie Martens, Germany 8:27.9 (50m pool)
Mariah Denigan, USA 8:28.1 (50m pool)
Maria de Valdes Alvarez, Spain 8:28.6
Airi Ebina, Japan 8:32.6 (50m pool)
Lisa Pou, Monaco 8:35.2
Ginevra Taddeucci, Italy 8:36.1 (50m pool)
Emma Finlin, Canada 8:36.5
Maria Alejandra Bramont-Arias, Peru 8:36.5
Ana Marcela Cunha, Brazil 8:36.9
Oceane Cassignol, France 8:38.7
Angelica Andre, Portugal 8:38.7
Xin Xin, China 8:43.2
Caroline Laure Jouisse, France 8:45.8
Martha Sandoval Ayala, Mexico 9:11.4

Lifetime Best 1500m Time (in a 25m short-course pool)

Moesha Johnson, Australia 15:40.5
Katie Grimes, USA 15:42.1
Sharon van Rouwendaal, Netherlands 15:48.7
Leonie Beck, Germany 15:49.7
Chelsea Gubecka, Australia 15:54.7
Leonie Martens, Germany 16:03.0 (50m pool)
Viviane Jungblut, Brazil 16:03.3
Angela Martinez Guillen, Spain 16:05.2
Airi Ebina, Japan 16:07.0 50m pool)
Ginevra Taddeucci, Italy 16:08.6 (50m pool)
Giulia Gabbrielleschi, Italy 16:10.4 (50m pool)
Mariah Denigan, USA 16:12.4 (50m pool)
Xin Xin, China 16:13.6
Bettina Fabian, Hungary 16:13.7
Emma Finlin, Canada 16:15.8
Lisa Pou, Monaco 16:16.5
Angelica Andre, Portugal 16:18.0
Maria Alejandra Bramont-Arias, Peru 16:19.7
Leah Phoebe Crisp, Great Britain 16:23.7
Ana Marcela Cunha, Brazil 16:31.7
Oceane Cassignol, France 16:40.1
Caroline Laure Jouisse, France 16:42.0
Maria de Valdes Alvarez, Spain 16:58.1
Martha Sandoval Ayala, Mexico 17:14.7

Analysis

Either was you look at the pool-based seedings – whether it is the 800m or the 1500m – Sharon van Rouwendaal of the Netherlands, Katie Grimes of the USA, Leonie Beck of Germany, Viviane Jungblut of Brazil, Moesha Johnson and Chelsea Gubecka of Australia would be in the lead pack and in the mix coming down the finish chute at the end of the marathon swim competing for Olympic gold, silver, or bronze.

Reality based on Real-world Open Water Racing

But pool swimming is not open water racing. Great technique and great streamlines off the wall are not the key factors in competitive marathon swims. Instead, athletes must deal with:

Physicality throughout the race where they can be touched, grabbed, elbowed, kicked, cut off, veered into, and pulled back- all without, in many cases, unintentionally and without consequences. Some of these encounters could hurt, but all are certainly frustrating and irritating to be the recipient.
Physicality around the turn buoys where they can be touched, grabbed, elbowed, kicked, and pulled – all without, in some cases, unintentionally and without consequences. Some of these encounters could hurt, but all are certainly frustrating and irritating to be the recipient.
Physicality in and out of the feeding stations. 2020 Tokyo Olympic gold medalist Ana Marcela Cunha had to compete in the 2016 Rio Olympic marathon swim without her feeds as a result.
Physicality while sprinting down the finish chute. At the 2016 Rio Olympics marathon swim, on the very last stroke of the 10,,000 meter race, Aurélie Muller of France was disqualified and lost her silver medal as a consequence.
Touching the elevated finish pad at the exact right moment. Ferry Weertman timed his last stroke perfectly to win the 2016 Rio Olympics over Spyridon Gianniotis, although both men were given the exact same finish time of 1:52:59.8.
Swimming straight. During the 2008 Olympic marathon swim, David Davies was leading the race going down the final stretch only to slightly veer himself and eventual bronze medalist Thomas Lurz off the straightest line that gold medalist Maarten van der Weijden took to win the gold medal.
Positioning well. Grant Hackett was the fastest distance freestyler of his era, but he was boxed in during the Olympic marathon swim qualification race. The same was true with Jordan Wilimovsky in Rio de Janeiro where he was sandwiched between larger competitors and had to swim in the middle of the lead pack at crucial times.
Drafting. In rare occasions, someone like Florian Wellbrock will take off and have the swim of his life leading early all the way to the finish. But in most cases, drafting is a major tactical advantage that the most successful swimmers employ.
Understanding your competitors and the best tactics to employ at optimal times. If a competitor primarily breathes to the left, do you draft off his right hip? If a competitor is faster than you in the 50m and 100m, do you try to outsprint her from further out?
Psychology of racing hard, drafting, positioning, feeding, and dealing with physicality for nearly two hours – yet staying focused and responding optimally during key points in a race. This competitive marathon swimmer’s mindset is a most critical learned advantage that takes time and experience to master.

Predictions

The race will be spectacular.
The races will showcase the sport of marathon swimming in its grandest fashion.
The lead swimmers will go out extremely fast.
Jockeying among several individuals in the lead pack will start early and only culminate in a very close finisher.
Water temperatures at around 20 – 21°C will be comfortable to all, even the less experienced pool swimmers.
Ana Marcela Cunha, the defending Olympic champion, and darkhorse Mariah Denigan of the USA and the Italians and French (Oceane Cassignol, Caroline Laure Jouisse, Giulia Gabbrielleschi, Ginevra Taddeucci) will play a crucial role on who gets on the Olympic podium.

The Race

24 women from 17 countries will compete in the 10 km marathon swim on August 8th starting at the Pont Alexandre III bridge where the course will be 6 loops of 1.67 km around a 10 km rectangular course in the Seine.

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