If the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim were held in a pool and the River Seine had lane lines, walls, and diving blocks like a competitive pool, then the men in the Olympic marathon swim event would be seeded like the 800 meter or 1500 meter freestyle in the pool

If this were the case, then the marathon swim seedings would look like this (based on either the 800m or 1500m best times of the athletes):

Lifetime Best 800m Time (in a 25m short-course pool)

1. Daniel Wiffen, Ireland 07:20.5
2. Henrik Christiansen, Norway 7:25.8
3. Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy 7:27.9
4. Florian Wellbrock, Germany 7:28.0
5. David Johnston, USA 7:30.4
6. Felix Auboeck, Austria 7:31.9
7. Victor Johansson, Sweden 7:33.1
8. Logan Fontaine, France 7:33.1
9. David Betlehem, Hungary 7:37.3
10. Domenico Acerenza, Italy 7:38.7
11. Kristóf Rasovszky, Hungary 7:39.2
12. Marc-Antoine Olivier, France 7:40.1
13. Guilherme Costa, Brazil 7:41.2
14. Woomin Kim, South Korea 7:41.4
15. Kuzey Tuncelli, Turkey 7:41.4
16. Oliver Klemet, Germany 7:41.5
17. Nick Sloman, Australia 7:44.1
18. Tobias Patrick Robinson, Great Britain 7:44.5
19. Carlos Garach Benito, Spain 7:44.5
20. Ahmed Jaouadi, Tunisia 7:50.5
21. Jan Hercog, Austria 7:54.0
22. Emir Batur Albayrak, Turkey 7:56.4 (50m pool)
23. Athanasios Charalampos Kynigakis, Greece 7:58.3 (50m pool)
24. Matan Roditi, Israel 8:01.6
25. Hector Pardoe, Great Britain 8:03.2
26. Taishin Minamide, Japan 8:07.4
27. Ivan Puskovitch, USA 8:07.8 (50m pool)
28. Kyle Lee, Australia 8:10.7
29. Phillip Seidler, Namibia 8:13.0
30. Piotr Wozniak, Poland 8:17.3
31. Martin Straka, Czech Republic 8:18.0
32. David Andres Farinango Berru, Ecuador 8:28.3
33. Paulo Strehlke Delgado, Mexico 8:28.9

Lifetime Best 1500m Time (in a 25m short-course pool)

1. Florian Wellbrock, Germany 14:06.9
2. Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy 14:08.1
3. Daniel Wiffen, Ireland 14:09.1
4. Henrik Christiansen, Norway 14:18.2
5. David Johnston, USA 14:22.8
6. David Betlehem, Hungary 14:23.3
7. Domenico Acerenza, Italy 14:24.3
8. Logan Fontaine, France 14:27.9
9. Victor Johansson, Sweden 14:34.5
10. Marc-Antoine Olivier, France 14:37.8
11. Kuzey Tuncelli, Turkey 14:38.6
12. Kristóf Rasovszky, Hungary 14:38.6
13. Guilherme Costa, Brazil 14:39.4
14. Tobias Patrick Robinson, Great Britain 14:39.5
15. Nick Sloman, Australia 14:42.7
16. Oliver Klemet, Germany 14:44.3
17. Woomin Kim, South Korea 14:44.6
18. Carlos Garach Benito, Spain 14:45.2
19. Felix Auboeck, Austria 14:48.1
20. Matan Roditi, Israel 14:53.1
21. Taishin Minamide, Japan 14:56.5
22. Jan Hercog, Austria 14:56.7
23. Emir Batur Albayrak, Turkey 15:00.6 (50m pool)
24. Ahmed Jaouadi, Tunisia 15:01.8
25. Piotr Wozniak, Poland 15:09.8
26. Hector Pardoe, Great Britain 15:14.3
27. Athanasios Charalampos Kynigakis, Greece 15:16.5 (50m pool)
28. Ivan Puskovitch, USA 15:23.0 (50m pool)
29. Kyle Lee, Australia 15:29.0
30. Phillip Seidler, Namibia 15:36.0
31. Martin Straka, Czech Republic 15:44.5
32. David Andres Farinango Berru, Ecuador 15:57.4
33. Paulo Strehlke Delgado, Mexico 16:13.3

Analysis based on Pool Times

Either was you look at the pool-based seedings – whether it is the 800m or the 1500m – Florian Wellbrock of Germany, Gregorio Paltrinieri of Italy, Daniel Wiffen of Ireland, Henrik Christiansen of Norway, and David Johnston of the USA would be in the lead pack and in the mix coming down the finish chute at the end of the marathon swim competing for Olympic gold, silver, or bronze.

Reality based on Real-world Open Water Racing

But pool swimming is not open water racing. Great technique and great streamlines off the wall are not the key factors in competitive marathon swims. Instead, athletes must deal with:

• Physicality throughout the race where they can be touched, grabbed, elbowed, kicked, cut off, veered into, and pulled back- all without, in many cases, unintentionally and without consequences. Some of these encounters could hurt, but all are certainly frustrating and irritating to be the recipient.
• Physicality around the turn buoys where they can be touched, grabbed, elbowed, kicked, and pulled – all without, in some cases, unintentionally and without consequences. Some of these encounters could hurt, but all are certainly frustrating and irritating to be the recipient.
• Physicality in and out of the feeding stations. 2020 Tokyo Olympic gold medalist Ana Marcela Cunha had to compete in the 2016 Rio Olympic marathon swim without her feeds as a result.
• Physicality while sprinting down the finish chute. At the 2016 Rio Olympics marathon swim, on the very last stroke of the 10,,000 meter race, Aurélie Muller of France was disqualified and lost her silver medal as a consequence.
• Touching the elevated finish pad at the exact right moment. Ferry Weertman timed his last stroke perfectly to win the 2016 Rio Olympics over Spyridon Gianniotis, although both men were given the exact same finish time of 1:52:59.8.
• Swimming straight. During the 2008 Olympic marathon swim, David Davies was leading the race going down the final stretch only to slightly veer himself and eventual bronze medalist Thomas Lurz off the straightest line that gold medalist Maarten van der Weijden took to win the gold medal.
• Positioning well. Grant Hackett was the fastest distance freestyler of his era, but he was boxed in during the Olympic marathon swim qualification race. The same was true with Jordan Wilimovsky in Rio de Janeiro where he was sandwiched between larger competitors and had to swim in the middle of the lead pack at crucial times.
• Drafting. In rare occasions, someone like Florian Wellbrock will take off and have the swim of his life leading early all the way to the finish. But in most cases, drafting is a major tactical advantage that the most successful swimmers employ.
• Understanding your competitors and the best tactics to employ at optimal times. If a competitor primarily breathes to the left, do you draft off his right hip? If a competitor is faster than you in the 50m and 100m, do you try to outsprint her from further out?
• Psychology of racing hard, drafting, positioning, feeding, and dealing with physicality for nearly two hours – yet staying focused and responding optimally during key points in a race. This competitive marathon swimmer’s mindset is a most critical learned advantage that takes time and experience to master.

Predictions

• The race will be spectacular.
• The races will showcase the sport of marathon swimming in its grandest fashion.
• The lead swimmers will go out extremely fast.
• Jockeying among several individuals in the lead pack will start early and only culminate in a very close finisher.
• Water temperatures at around 20 – 21°C will be comfortable to all, even the less experienced pool swimmers.
• The Frenchmen – Logan Fontaine and Marc-Antoine Olivier – and the Italians – Domenico Acerenza and Gregorio Paltrinieri will play crucial roles on who gets on the Olympic podium.

The Race

33 men from 24 countries will compete in the 10 km marathon swim on August 9th starting at the Pont Alexandre III bridge where the course will be 6 loops of 1.67 km around a 10 km rectangular course in the Seine.

Additional Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Commentary and Articles

• 2024 Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Prediction: Swimming in the Seine Will Be Spectacular
• Speed and Strategy on the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Course in the Fast-flowing Seine
• Growth of the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim in Paris: Pool Specialists versus Open Water Specialists
• Breaking News: Details of the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim in Paris
• Breaking News: Female Swimmers of the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim in Paris
• Breaking News: Male Swimmers of the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim in Paris
• Ignasi Vendrell Gervás Is Running The Show at the 2024 Olympic 10K Marathon Swim
• Plan B For The Olympic 10K Marathon Swim
• Whoa…The Speed of the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Will Be Off The Charts…Daniel Wiffen to Compete
• 10 Days in Paris: The Swimming Life of Olympian Katie Grimes
• What Would You Do: Protest or Compete in the Seine at the Paris Olympics?
• Olympic Marathon Swimmers Getting Faster and Faster – like Oliver Klemet
• Goose Poo to Human Poo – Media Focus on Faecal Matter and Marathon Swimming Every Four Years

Race Course on the Seine

For more information on the Olympic marathon swim from the IOC, visit here.

© 2024 Daily News of Open Water Swimming

“to educate, enthuse, and entertain all those who venture beyond the shoreline“

A World Open Water Swimming Federation project.