As gambling on international open water swimming events gradually becomes more popular and widespread globally, I always wondered how the oddsmakers came up with the odds for betters to consider.

In the United States, Caesars Sportsbook offer betting on the 5 km men’s, 10 km women’s and 10 km men’s and the 4x1500m mixed relay open water swimming events at the 2024 World Aquatics Championships starting tomorrow in Doha, Qatar.

Riley Overend of SwimSwam has been following the development of betting on open water swimming events since at least 2023. She interviewed Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, who explained how the odds were set, “It takes time to research, takes time to make numbers and do a good enough job to where you can be confident in what lines you’re putting out. You do the research, you collaborate with a few people and come to a consensus, and let the bets come in and see where it takes you…you just have to put in the time and do the work, look at as many statistics and recent races, recent meets, all that stuff goes into it and just get as much information as possible.”

While Florian Wellbrock and Leonie Beck, both of Germany, are safe bets to defend their world titles and win their respective 10 km marathon swims in Doha, their victories are not close to be guaranteed.

Unlike betting on competitive pool swimming where significant drops in lifetime best times are extremely rare, there are so many external factors that can go into standing on the awards podium at the end of a 5 km or 10 km race:

• Positioning throughout the race, relative to the competition, around turn buoys, and in and out of the feeding pontoons
• Drafting throughout the race, relative to the right competitor in the right position with the best line to the finish
• Sighting into the finish
• Reaching up to hit the finish board at the precise correct time for an optimal finish
• Unsportsmanlike conduct (e.g., punches, elbows, pull backs) that can hamper a swimmer or lead to a red card
• Issuing of yellow cards (e.g., for impeding or bumping into other swimmers) that can create dynamic changes in race strategy

Women’s 2023 World Championships 10 km Top 10 Results

1. Leonie Beck, Germany 2:02:34.0 [shown above]
2. Chelsea Gubecka, Australia 2:02:38.1
3. Katie Grimes, USA 2:02:42.3
4. Sharon van Rouwendaal, Netherlands 2:02:42.4
5. Ana Marcela Cunha, Brazil 2:02:42.5
6. Ginevra Taddeucci, Italy 2:02:46.7
7. Lea Boy, Germany 2:03:12.9
8. Mariah Denigan, USA 2:03:13.5
9. Bettina Fábián, Hungary 2:03:15.2
10. Giulia Gabbrielleschi, Italy 2:03:15.7

Men’s 2023 World Championships 10 km Top 10 Results

1. Florian Wellbrock, Germany 1:50:40.3
2. Kristóf Rasovszky, Hungary 1:50:59.0
3. Oliver Klemet, Germany 1:51:00.8
4. Domenico Acerenza, Italy 1:51:16.7 [shown above]
5. Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy 1:51:40.7
6. Athanasios Kynigakis, Greece 1:51:42.1
7. Nicholas Sloman, Australia 1:51:42.2
8. Matan Roditi, Israel 1:51:43.8
9. Logan Fontaine, France 1:52:41.7
10. Hector Pardoe, Great Britain 1:53:04.2

Men’s 2023 World Championships 5 km Top 10 Results

1. Florian Wellbrock, Germany 53:58.0
2. Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy 54:02.5
3. Domenico Acerenza, Italy 54:04.2
4. Oliver Klemet, Germany 54:57.2
5. Dávid Betlehem, Hungary 54:58.6
6. Athanasios Kynigakis, Greece 54:58.6
7. Kristóf Rasovszky, Hungary 55:23.9
8. Kyle Lee, Australia 55:32.7
9. Logan Fontaine, France 55:33.0
10. Sacha Velly, France 55:33.1

For more information on the World Aquatics Championships, visit www.worldaquatics-doha2024.com.

For the list of 72 starters in Saturday’s women’s 10 km race, visit here. For the list of 79 starters in Sunday’s men’s 10 km race, visit here.

Gambling Laws in the United States

Throughout the United States, laws regulate online and in-person betting in different ways.

In the states of Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington DC, West Virginia, and Wyoming, betting is legalized – with in-person sports betting legal in the states in Delaware, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Washington and Wisconsin.

But if you live in Alabama, Alaska, California, Florida (with exceptions), Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico (with exceptions), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota (with exceptions), Texas, Utah, Vermont (but perhaps soon), Wisconsin (with exceptions), you are out of luck.

© 2024 Daily News of Open Water Swimming

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