Courtesy of WOWSA, Odaiba Marine Park, Tokyo Bay, Japan.
Among the 25 women who will line up on the starting pontoon at the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim for the Tokyo Olympic Games, undoubtedly these 10 women will be in the lead pack amid high heat, high humidity, and flat-water conditions:
1. Xin Xin (24, China)
2. Haley Anderson (29, USA)
3. Rachele Bruni (30, Italy)
4. Lara Grangeon (29, France)
5. Ana Marcela Cunha (28, Brazil)
6. Ashley Twichell (31, USA)
7. Kareena Lee (27, Australia)
8. Finnia Wunram (25, Germany)
9. Leonie Beck (23, Germany)
10. Sharon van Rouwendaal (27, Netherlands)
Even though it is impossible to make accurate predictions for the race that will be held in Odaiba Marine Park that sits along Tokyo Bay, below is one prognostication – going out on a limb – based on guesses and assumptions. “I thought it would be an interesting and certainly controversial thought experiment to predict the outcomes of the women’s Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Tokyo Bay’s Odaiba Marine Park on August 4th,” explained Steven Munatones.
Both Americans Haley Anderson and Ashley Twichell will be in their last competitive race at this level; this is their last hurrah. The 29-year-old three-time Olympian Anderson from USC has been swimming at the world-class level for over a decade. The 31-year-old first-time Olympian Twichell from Duke has also been a rival with Anderson for that same period. “It is tough to be world-class in distance freestyle for so long,” observed Munatones. “All those years of intense training for hours on end in the pool, week after week, month after month, year after year. That kind of dedication and focus takes a special type of individual – and both Haley and Ashley are special athletes.“
Similar to Ana Marcela Cunha, Rachele Bruni, and Sharon van Rouwendaal, they have seen everything during their years of high-level competition: close victories as well as heartbreaking losses with the narrowest of margins. They have all faced irritating and illegal physicality (e.g. elbows and pull-backs) around turn buoys, in the middle of a pack, and near the feeding stations. Simply put, their experience has prepared them well for the ultimate challenge.
How would a race shape up?
In every possible scenario that seems plausible, the pace will be fast while the athletes push themselves without spectators, music, or loud cheers from crowds in overflowing bleachers lining the observation decks. With fears of the ongoing pandemic still causing concerns and worries among the decision-makers, public health officials, and populace, the 25 women race only followed by a handful of officials’ and media boats.
But for two hours, their focus is entirely on the others in the lead pack.
Twichell takes off a la Keri-Anne Payne of Great Britain who also liked to swim in the lead, away from the physicality in the pack. Anderson follows several bodies behind a la Larisa Ilchenko of Russia who liked to hold off leading until the very end.
The top 10 break right away as the first turn buoy is tight and no one wants a quick yellow card. This creates a lead pack and a trailing pack on Lap 1. The separation of the top swimmers from the last 8 swimmers in the first 2.5 km loop is an indication of the collective speed of the top women.
The lead alternates between a two-wide and five-wide pack
The medalists will cross the first line and raise their arms in exultation, but they will hear their national athens with only few others around them who can appreciate their moments of glory. Tears may flow on the awards podium and during the medal ceremonies, but those will only be seen on television.
The online livecasts of the races will be watched by greater numbers than by those on regular television.
At least in the United States, the broadcast will miss the nuances of the sport. Experienced veterans like Shelley Taylor-Smith and Sid Cassidy could give the best verbal explanations of all the personalities, strategies and backstories of the sport.
The pace of the first 5 km will be the faster than has ever been swum before.
The men’s and women’s 10 km races will start earlier than any other event at the Tokyo Olympics.
Yellow cards given in the first 7 km of the race will have an impact on the decisions of the swimmers in the lead pack in the last 500 meters of the race.
A man will achieve the Mellouli Double at the Tokyo Olympics.
A protest will be filed after the race is completed and the official annouLike Maarten van der Weijden‘s victory in 2008, and Sharon van Rouwendaal‘s runaway gold medal performance in the 2016 Rio Olympics, an unsung swimmer will unexpectedly make waves in Tokyo Bay and their Olympic dream will be realized.
It will certainly be a race to see.
Defending Olympic 10 km marathon swimming champion Ferry Weertman is shown above.
“Readers are encouraged to email headcoach@openwatersource.com with their own comments and predictions, along with their reasons, if they wish to share their own opinions and want to be quoted in this series about the theoretical races. It will be fun to analyze this imaginary race buoy-by-buoy, kilometer-by-kilometer, lap-by-lap until the finish.”
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