2024 Olympic 10K Marathon Swim Prediction: Swimming in the Seine Will Be Spectacular

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One of the issues that remains a popular topic in the media and among Olympic fans is a discussion of the poor water quality of the River Seine where the Olympic 10K Marathon Swim and the Olympic Triathlon competitions will be held.

Bold Prediction

The races will be spectacular.
The races will showcase the sport of marathon swimming in a grand fashion
The lead swimmers will jockey among several individuals and will culminate in very close finishers.
Water temperatures will be around 20 – 21°C
Plan B will not be necessary unless a horrific rainstorm will occur in the second week of the Olympics

Athletes

110 athletes will compete in the triathlon races. The races will be held on July 30th (men’s individual), July 31st (women’s individual), and August 5th (mixed relay) at Pont Alexandre III where the 1.5 km swim legs are in the Seine River (shown above).

33 men from 24 countries and 24 women from 17 countries will compete in the 10 km marathon swim. The women’s race will be held on August 8th with the men following on August 9th at Pont Alexandre III where the course will be 6 loops of 1.67 km around a 10 km rectangular course in the Seine.

Setting

The Pont Alexandre III is a deck arch bridge that spans the Seine in the middle of Paris. It connects the Champs-Élysées quarter with those of the Invalides and Eiffel Tower. The bridge is widely regarded as the most ornate, extravagant bridge in Paris and has been classified as a French monument historique since 1975.

Past Olympic Open Water Swimming Competitions

Throughout the history of the modern Olympic Games, the open swimming events have been held in the various open bodies of water:

1896 Athens Olympics: Bay of Zea off the Piraeus coast in the Aegean Sea of Greece
1900 Paris Olympics: Seine in Paris, France
1904 St. Louis Olympics: Man-made pond near Skinker and Wydown Boulevards in St. Louis, Missouri, U.S.A.
1906 Athens Intercalated Games: Neo Phaliron Bay off the coast of Athens, Greece
2008 Beijing Olympics: Shunyi Olympic Rowing-Canoeing Park, outside Beijing, China
2012 London Olympics: Serpentine in London, England
2016 Rio Olympics: Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
2020 Tokyo Olympics: Odaiba Marine Park in Tokyo Bay, Japan
2024 Paris Olympics: River Seine in Paris, France
2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games: Coast off of Long Beach, California

Historical Concerns

In previous Olympics, the media, fans, coaches, administrators, and commentators have pointed out or complained about the water quality in the marathon swim venues, especially in Rio de Janeiro and Tokyo. Despite the claims of polluted water, no athletes complained, got sick, or were hospitalized after the event. The events went off as planned.

Prediction and Hope

We think the same will occur in Paris: the media will write about and others will complain, but good fortune has always fallen upon the shoulders of the Olympic open water swimming community.

Let the Games begin.