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Mother Nature Can Be Fickle and Unpredictable Despite Positive Forecasts

Prolific channel swimmer Kamil Resa Alsaran of Turkey was on track to become the oldest person to cross the Molokai Channel. At 63, if successful, he would become the oldest man to complete the 45 km channel between Molokai Island and Oahu. 

He started in the early evening at 5:14 pm on June 6th and swam well – 5 km over the first two hours.

Unfortunately and suddenly without warning, Kamil got pushed 800 meters north of the rhumb line within 5 minutes with some strong currents off the shores of Molokai Island. As Captain Michael Twigg-Smith comments, “Ka’iwi continues to be a tough year.

The current was not from an awful direction. It actually had a slight tail component, but it was the kind of current out of the SSE where the swimmer needed to be brief with the feeding time and get right back at it to hold the rhumb line. Kamil was able to hold the rhumb line for almost 5 hours, but then the current quickly whisked him 800 meters North of the rhumb line in about 5 minutes. 

Unfortunately it looks like we are heading into a La Niña condition for the next several months (read the National Weather Service predictions here) and the foreseeable wind forecast does not look promising.”

In some years, the conditions simply can be gnarly and not advantageous to successful crossings. For those who have been in the sport of channel swimming for decades, there are occasionally some seasons when successful crossings are hard to come by. Channel swimmers need patience and understanding that sometimes insurmountable conditions are the hand that Mother Nature deals. In contrast, there are some years where success after success seems to be the name of the game.

Time and time again, escort pilots are asked about the expected conditions. They provide all the available information about weather and winds, tides and currents, but then conditions change out in the middle of the channel. These changes are not the fault of the pilot or crew – it is simply that Mother Nature can be unpredictable when it comes to weather, even hour to hour or minute by minute.

But sometimes, some swimmers simply have bad luck. In July 2022, Kamil attempted a 19.5 km Tsugaru Channel crossing in Japan. The water was warm (25°C), the winds were manageable, the Tsugaru Current was mild, but he had to abort his crossing when he encountered sharks in the water [see photo above on left]. But Kamil also has shown tremendous resolve over his prolific career by crossing the 35 km North Channel from Northern Ireland to Scotland in 13 hours 55 minutes at the age of 58 and the .23 km Cook Strait in New Zealand from South Island to North Island in 12 hours 34 minutes at the age of 63 in April 2024.

© 2024 Daily News of Open Water Swimming

to educate, enthuse, and entertain all those who venture beyond the shoreline

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